Global megatrends shape the agenda of the mineral industry

Of the US$ 68.4 billion in investments expected in Brazil between 2025 and 2029, projects related to iron ore account for 28.7%, and social-environmental projects for 16.6%.

Global megatrends shape the agenda of the mineral industry
By Carmen Nery — For Valor, from Rio

11/11/2025

 

Global megatrends have been shaping the direction of supply, demand, and investments in the mining sector. The guiding mantra has been food security, decarbonization, and the energy transition, in which minerals such as lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt, and green iron ore play a fundamental role. Data from the Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram) indicate that, of the total US$ 68.4 billion in investments expected in Brazil between 2025 and 2029, social-environmental projects occupy the second position, with 16.6%, behind only those linked to iron ore (28.7%).

José Luís Gordon, director of productive development, innovation, and foreign trade at the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), reports that the bank has been working to stimulate the strategic minerals chain. BNDES received 124 proposals and selected 56 of them, totaling R$ 45.8 billion, in the public call carried out in partnership with Finep to support business plans aimed at expanding production capacity and research, development, and innovation (R&D&I).

In partnership with Vale, BNDES created, in 2024, the Strategic Minerals Private Equity Fund (FIP) with R$ 1 billion to invest in around 20 junior and mid-sized companies engaged in research focused on strategic minerals for the energy transition (cobalt, copper, lithium, and nickel) and for food security (phosphate and potassium). BNDESPAR and Vale will subscribe quotas ranging from R$ 100 million to R$ 250 million.

Rafael Marchi, managing partner at A&M Infra, says that the mining sector is experiencing a peculiar moment. On one side, there are iron ore projects from the major ventures, such as Vale, Anglo, BHP, and Samarco; and from the second tier, made up of Brazil Iron, Cedro, Bamin, Herculano, Minerita and others. On the other side, there are gold projects and those in the category of critical minerals for the energy transition and for fertilizers. “In rare earths, there are projects from Meteoric, Aclara, Serra Verde, and Brazilian Rare Earths. In lithium, there are investments from Sigma, CBL, Latin Resources, Atlas Lithium, and others that are in the pipeline. From a geopolitical standpoint, there is a race to secure minerals from Brazil, which is a neutral country,” Marchi adds.

Among the greenfield (new) projects, the Ferro Verde Project by Brazil Iron includes three open-pit iron ore mines, a 120-kilometer railway branch, and three industrial plants for producing pellet feed (high-grade iron ore), pelletizing, and HBI (hot briquetted iron) at Porto Sul (BA), using green hydrogen. “McKinsey projects a deficit of 109 million tons of green iron in 2031. Our construction work begins in 2026 and operations in 2030. The first ten years of production have already been negotiated with clients in Europe and Asia,” says Emerson Souza, vice president of institutional relations at Brazil Iron.

Vale expects that 10% of its total iron ore production will consist of circular mining products. Carlos Medeiros, vice president of operations, highlights the Novo Carajás Program (PA), with investments of R$ 70 billion, and a new phase of investments in Minas Gerais, totaling R$ 67 billion, both planned to be carried out by 2030.
A mina Capanema (MG) foi reativada, com investimentos de R$ 5,2 bilhões, em setembro, adicionando 15 milhões de toneladas por ano à produção de minério de ferro da Vale. No Pará, com o Novo Carajás, a produção de minério de ferro chegará a um ritmo de 200 milhões de toneladas por ano em 2030, a partir do adicional de 20 Mt na mina de Serra Su). No caso do cobre, projeta-se um crescimento de 32%, para cerca de 350 mil toneladas. Na frente de metais para transição energética, a Vale Metais Básicos iniciou em setembro a operação do segundo forno de processamento de níquel no Complexo Mineral Onça Puma, no sudeste do Pará.

CSN Mineração is investing R$ 13.2 billion, through 2030, in logistics infrastructure, circular economy initiatives, and the P15 Project, which aims to produce 16.5 million tons per year of pellet feed at the Casa de Pedra mine in Congonhas (MG) to enable greener steel production. “It is a fundamental input for the decarbonization of the global steel industry. Operations are expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2027,” says Pedro Oliva, chief financial and investor relations officer.

Other brownfield (already existing) projects have received investments from new operators. The Mubadala and Trafigura groups carried out the licensing of a new project at the Mineração Morro do Ipê (MMI) mine, in the Serra Azul region (MG), which was acquired from MMX Sudeste. MMI invested R$ 1.3 billion to produce 6 million tons per year of “green ore” (pellet feed), with higher iron content.

Atlantic Nickel, owned by the British fund Appian Capital Advisor, will initially receive US$ 50 million in investments at the Santa Rita nickel mine in Itagibá (BA). The funds come from the US$ 1 billion fund created by Appian and IFC, the private investment arm of the World Bank. “Appian is investing R$ 100 million in a feasibility study for the underground project at the Santa Rita mine. With the study confirmed, R$ 3 billion will be invested in the development of the underground mine between 2026 and 2030,” says Milson Mundim, country manager at Appian Capital Brazil.

Sigma Lithium is investing US$ 100 million, with R$ 486.8 million in financing from BNDES, to expand its production capacity through the construction of a second Greentech plant for converting ore into lithium oxide. “Completion is expected by the end of 2026, which will double our annual industrial capacity from 40,000 t of LCE [lithium carbonate equivalent], about 3% of the global market, to 80,000 t of LCE, just to keep up with the rising growth in lithium demand, which reached 22% this year,” says Ana Cabral, CEO and co-founder of Sigma

Source of the publication:: Megatendências globais definem agenda da indústria mineral | Mineração | Valor Econômico

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